Date of Graduation
Spring 2026
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Geoscience
Committee Chairperson
Daria Nikitina, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Joby Hilliker, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Yong Hoon Kim, Ph.D.
Abstract
This case study investigates the relationship between global SST variability and climate in PA, with the goal of assessing the potential for global SST-based prediction of precipitation and temperature for the local area. Using satellite-derived global SST data from 2002–2021, areal Pearson correlations were computed between global SST fields and PA climate variables at annual, winter, and summer timescales. Both contemporaneous (0-year lag) and lagged relationships (1- and 2-year lags) were evaluated to examine short- and medium-term predictive potential. Statistical significance (p < 0.05) was applied to isolate meaningful teleconnection patterns.
Results indicate that global SST variability exerts a strong and spatially coherent influence on PA climate, particularly at the 0-year lag. Precipitation exhibits the strongest and most extensive correlations with global SST across the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean, consistent with ENSO teleconnections. However, precipitation relationships weaken and become more fragmented at longer lags, limiting predictive skill beyond one year. In contrast, temperature displays more persistent and spatially coherent relationships, particularly during winter, suggesting greater potential for extended predictability. Seasonal analysis reveals stronger teleconnections during annual and winter periods, with weaker, more localized relationships in summer.
ENSO emerges as the dominant climate driver, producing consistent, physically meaningful teleconnections with both precipitation and temperature, whereas the PDO exhibits weaker, less coherent relationships. These findings demonstrate that global SST variability can be used to improve regional climate prediction in PA, particularly on seasonal-to-interannual timescales.
Final Version Confirmation
1
Recommended Citation
Diodati, Mercie A., "Spatial Correlations Between Global Sea Surface Temperature and Pennsylvania Climate" (2026). West Chester University Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Final Projects. 73.
https://digitalcommons.wcupa.edu/all_capstones/73
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