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Abstract

This paper examines the ongoing trade war between China and the US and attempts to identify the causes of the trade conflict and impact on output, employment, and current account balance of China’s economy. The research conclude that the causes of the trade conflict are threefold, namely, trade imbalances, the midterm/presidential elections in the US, and the competition for global economic control. The worst-case scenario suggests that China will lose about 1% of its job positions and 1.13% of GDP, suggesting that the trade conflict will have some impact on China, but it may not be devastating. The large size of output, the fast progress of the economy, and the abundant reserve assets will enable China to survive the negative effects caused by the trade conflict, even in the pessimistic-case scenario.

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