Date of Graduation

Fall 2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Geography and Planning

Committee Chairperson

Megan Heckert, PhD

Committee Member

Gary Coutu, PhD

Committee Member

Meghann Pierdon, VMD

Abstract

This study examines environmental risk factors associated with outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in Pennsylvania’s commercial poultry industry. Using a case-control design, the analysis evaluates 2,285 geocoded commercial poultry farms through spatial and biostatistical methods aligned with STROBE-Vet reporting guidelines. A broad set of 641 GIS-derived candidate variables, including farm characteristics, bird types, disease incidence, wild bird observations, anthropogenic features, socio-economic indicators, and ecoclimatic conditions, were screened for associations with HPAI infection. The logistic regression model identified the density of infected farms within short distances and the local concentration of duck farms as the strongest predictors of outbreak risk. Additional associations with road networks and higher median household income suggest potential ties to economic activity, suburban development pressures, and poultry trade dynamics. Duck, turkey, and mixed-species operations were more susceptible to infection than broiler farms. The findings highlight the central role of short-range transmission dynamics and emphasize the need for targeted surveillance and biosecurity planning. Future research should integrate temporal data, poultry trade networks, and integrated ecological and socio-economic indicators to strengthen predictive modeling and support regional disease control strategies.

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